Bitcoin is doing something it hasn’t done since 2014. Wall Street analysts predict that this will take place in 2026.

Bitcoin is doing something it hasn’t done since 2014, While some Wall Street analysts predict that Bitcoin will soar to all-time highs in 2026, history presents a more grim picture. While Bitcoin (BTC +1.00%) has dropped 5%, the S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.16%) has increased 15% so far this year. According to Bloomberg, if that trend continues, it will be the first year since 2014 that the S&P 500 has increased while Bitcoin has decreased.

What took place the last time? The next year, Bitcoin significantly outperformed. In particular, Bitcoin increased 38% in 2015 while the S&P 500 drifted sideways. Some Wall Street analysts predict that Bitcoin will recover similarly in 2019.

What took place the last time? The next year, Bitcoin significantly outperformed. In particular, Bitcoin increased 38% in 2015 while the S&P 500 drifted sideways. Some Wall Street analysts predict that Bitcoin will recover similarly in 2019.

Also read: This is the amount that traders anticipate Micron stock to move following earnings. Wednesday.

Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein and Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered predict that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 in 2026. Both forecasts indicate a 74% increase from the current price of $86,000, but they are negative revisions from their earlier expectations due to a more challenging market climate.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein, however, anticipate more growth in the future. Chhugani predicts that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2033 (implying a 1,060% increase), while Kendrick predicts that it will reach $500,000 by 2030 (implying a 480% increase).

The Bitcoin investing thesis

The premise of the Bitcoin investing thesis is that demand will rise in the upcoming years as firms incorporate digital assets into their treasury strategy and institutional investors diversify their holdings. More legal clarity, particularly in the US, and easier adoption through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are driving drivers behind that demand.

To put it another way, spot Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to purchase Bitcoin using their current brokerage accounts by removing obstacles (such managing numerous accounts and expensive fees) related to cryptocurrency exchanges. The largest spot Bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust, has seen a 150% growth in the number of large asset managers holding positions in it over the past year. Additionally, both public and private companies now own 60% more Bitcoin.

In the meantime, the Clarity Act, which clarifies jurisdiction over digital assets, was enacted by the US House of Representatives in July. In 2026, Senate approval is anticipated. Additionally, in July, Congress passed the GENIUS Act, which established a stablecoin regulatory framework. Although it has nothing to do with Bitcoin specifically, it demonstrates the growing popularity of digital assets, which should encourage institutional and corporate adoption.

In fact, according to a recent article by State Street Investment Management, “Institutions are embracing Bitcoin for its diversification, long-term growth, and improving regulatory clarity.”

History suggests that 2026 may be another challenging year for Bitcoin.

In the past, Bitcoin has reached its peak 12 to 18 months after each halving. After that, its price usually decreased for the next 12 to 18 months before progressively rising until the next halving. That trend is being followed by the current cycle.

The most recent Bitcoin halving took place in April of 2024. Its price peaked in October 2025, some eighteen months later, at over $125,000. If the trend continues, Bitcoin’s price will drop until late 2026 or early 2027, after which it would progressively rise as the fifth halving event approaches in the middle of 2028.

There’s another reason to believe that Bitcoin will have difficulties in 2026. In November 2025, the cryptocurrency closed in bear market territory, which is 20% below its bull market peak. This has now occurred seven times since 2021. Over the next 12 months, Bitcoin returned an average of 0% after the previous six events.

This is the overall picture: A few Wall Street analysts have set bullish target prices for Bitcoin in 2026, primarily based on the idea that institutional investors will buy spot Bitcoin ETFs. Investors who are uncomfortable owning Bitcoin for a number of (perhaps unpredictable) years should never purchase it in the first place because history indicates that it may yield mediocre returns next year.

Should you purchase Bitcoin stock at this time?

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